Fantasy Football ADP: Market Update (Week of July 25)

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Each week in this space, we’ll take a look at how fantasy football’s ADP has changed across real-money drafts over the past week. The goal is to learn how writers playing for prize money respond to news, injuries and more to build their teams. Finally, at the bottom of the article, we will draw the conclusions that we think are important to understand from these movements.

To listen to a breakdown of this information in a short audio format, check out the Establish The Run podcast (episode posted Monday afternoon).

We cover ADPs for Underdog Fantasy, FFPC and NFFC. In the future, we will add the “local league” ADP to this report.

  • We see Leonard Fournette falling at the 2-3 turn on Underdog and FFPC with reports that he is out of form. Rachel White, whose ADP is increasing, could be a threat to Fournette, but we think the risk is built into Fournette’s ADP and that the level of fitness at this time of year is exaggerated. The Tampa RB spot is such a haven for high-value touches, that it’s reasonable to both buy the drop on Fournette while exposing yourself to White in the double-digit rounds.
  • The Rashaad Penny-Kenneth Walker The gap we discussed last week has made its way to the FFPC where the net week-over-week change between the two amounts to a full turn. It’s a tough situation to master because both backs seem like legitimately talented rushers on a team that wants to run, but it’s also a split backfield on a team that’s likely to struggle offensively. We have Walker ranked just around ADP, but he’s a strong bet to make on some builds and our preference over Penny both at cost and in the void.
  • Deshaun Watson has moved up in the industry with rumors that his suspension may be shorter than originally anticipated. It makes sense as a bet around QB20 or so because QB upside falls off a cliff at that point, but you want to be aware of where and how you are making this bet. He’s a great late QB2 in managed leagues where risk is mitigated by waivers (at his current price), but in top ball leagues you need to be more aware of team and tournament structure.
  • While the radio silence surrounding Will Fuller continues, the editors begin to be afraid. He still makes sense as a very late pick in our eyes. If he signs anywhere, his ADP will immediately increase, but the possibility of him not signing at all is a risk writers should be aware of when building their teams. Similar to Watson, this risk is heightened in better ball formats where it is more detrimental if using a pick on a full zero.

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